Article 1 - SOFT JOBS NUMBERS SUGGEST RATES ON HOLD
Signs that the economy is cooling and the Reserve Bank is winning its war against inflation are good news for RBA governor Glenn Stevens. A surprising fall in job numbers during May will take some pressure off the RBA to act. The official cash rate looks set to stay steady at 7.25 per cent in the short term.
The latest labour force data released this week indicates that the Australian labour market is softening. The total number of people employed fell by 19,700 which is in stark contrast to the 13,500 new jobs that economists expected to be created during the month.
The workforce participation rate shrank from 65.5 per cent in April to 65.2 per cent in May. The unemployment rate was 4.3 per cent, seasonally adjusted in May, which represents no change from the revised 4.3 per cent figure recorded at the end of April this year.
Economists were not expecting a contraction in jobs growth so soon and pundits seem to have pulled back their expectations of two rate rises this year. The money's on at least one rate rise, depending on what happens with wages growth.
A continued tight labour market, particularly in the mining sector will be one of the largest threats to inflation. If wages get pushed up, then the RBA will be forced to act. If recent union pressure for wage hikes turns into a wages outbreak, and in turn a rise in prices, the Reserve Bank will not be happy.
Greater clarity about the RBA's intentions will emerge when the Board next meets on July 1. The Bank will continue to scrutinize inflation data, with particular focus on the next round of figures which are due out at the end of July.
Article 2 - PROPERTY INVESTORS RETURN TO THE MARKET
A recent lull in interest rate hikes from the RBA has spurred property investors to return to the market, according to the latest report from CommSec.
CommSec's latest Economic Insights report highlights that while the value of overall housing finance commitments fell by 3% in April, the total value of investment loans increased by 1.4% over the same period.
"Housing finance may have fallen over the latest month, but on a positive note it was encouraging to see a marginal pick-up in investor housing loans," wrote CommSec Equities economist Savanth Sebastian. "In recent months the rate hikes have ensured that the housing sector remains the least favoured asset class. However, with increased speculation that the Reserve Bank may have retired to the interest rate sidelines for at least a few months, investors may begin crawling back to the housing market."
CommSec believed that stagnant interest rates will only encourage property investors to show increased interest in the housing market.
"The rental market remains extremely tight and with vacancy rates at record lows, any speculation that the rates are on hold will increase investor focus on housing," wrote Sebastian.
The notion that interest rate rises may have stopped for the time being also seems to have affected the number of homebuyers opting for fixed rate mortgages, with the fixed loan market seeing its overall proportion of all dwelling finance drop to 17.5% in April - its lowest proportion since August last year, according to the report.
"The growing sentiment that rates may have peaked or [are] at least close to the top of the cycle is also being priced in by borrowers, with the proportion of fixed rate loans to all loans falling to their lowest level in nine months," wrote Sebastian.
Interestingly, CommSec's statistics show that while the total value of housing finance commitments fell during April, the total value of home loans approved but not advanced reached a record high of $39bn. This was a 21.4% increase on the previous year's figure. The average housing loan was also up on the previous year's figure, rising by 4.1% to $236,900.
Loans for house building were also up in April, rising by 1.8%, suggesting that the construction industry believes that the need for housing in Australia will continue despite some difficult market conditions.
"The compelling fundamentals suggest property will be very much in focus in 2009 despite the headwinds of higher interest rates. Population is growing at the fastest rate in 18 years but supply of homes isn't keeping up, resulting in soaring rents and property prices," wrote Sebastian.
Article 3 - WHY A PROPERTY CRASH IS NOT LIKELY
Michael Yardney is Director of Metropole – Property Investment Strategists, a leading property commentator and publisher of Property Investment Update. Subscribe for free at www.PropertyUpdate.com.au
He is also author of How to Grow a Multi Million Dollar Property - in your spare time and co author of All you need to know About Buying and Selling your Home.
This makes for scary reading and I understand why many home owners and investors are nervous, but a property crash is not on the cards for Australia.
Sure our property boom is over - but that doesn't mean we're going to have a property crash.
There is no doubt that property markets have a lot to contend with this year. Apart from rising interest rates, our property markets had to deal with a global credit crunch, the US sub prime crisis, a US economy heading into recession, the stock market down turn, plummeting housing affordability, unprecedented rental supply shortages and lenders tightening their belts.
So it is not surprising that one questions whether Australia's property market can survive all of these blows or will it suffer the same fate that is happening overseas?
The recent USA National Association of Realtors house price survey recorded an average 7.7% drop in property values for the year of March. This is the biggest on record since 1982. In some states, including California and Florida, property values have plummeted by up to 30%. There are even reports that some financiers are repossessing homes and then asking the owners to stay on rent free just to protect the property from vandals.
Property values have also crashed in Britain, but not to the same extent as the USA. Britain is also suffering from the fallout of the American sub prime crisis with lenders severely restricting funding for investment properties.
So…... why do I think The Economist and other property commentators have got it wrong?
Firstly, I could say The Economist was wrong when it made similar predictions 2 years ago. At that time they forecast a property collapse in Australia, yet property values in most of our capital cities have increased by ten, fifteen and in many cases over twenty percent in the last year alone. Of course a counter argument could be: " Well all this means is that we are now in for a bigger crash!"
I believe the doom-sayers have got it wrong because they don't understand the difference between the fundamentals of the Australian property market and those overseas and the difference between this property cycle and previous property downturns.
In America many residential housing loans are "non-recourse loans." In other words lenders don't have to personally guarantee their loans. They can walk away from their loan commitments, leave their house to the lender and the bank can't make them pay for any shortfall when (and if) they sell the property.
This is why you will often see different investment strategies used by property investors in America where the mortgage stays with the house and not with the borrower.
Obviously, here in Australia you can't just walk away from your loan. If you can't make the re-payments, the banks may take over your property and the day of reckoning will eventually come when you will have to pay the bank for any shortfall they have after repossessing your property.
Our local housing market is underpinned by the fact that 70% of Australians own their own homes or are paying them off. Considering the strength of our property markets over the last few years, unless they bought recently or over committed, many Australians have a large amount of equity in their homes and a significant proportion have no debt against their homes.
We are investing in a market dominated by non investors. As opposed to shares investors, home owners don't just sell their house when the news is bad or property market is flat.
If you think about it, at any one time only about 5% of property owners are going to need to buy or sell their homes. This means the majority of property owners are not really affected by what is happening to property values as they are in it for the long term. They won't need to sell their properties if conditions in the property market get worse. This is obviously very different to the stock market, where as the share prices plummet, more investors have to sell to cover their margin calls accelerating the drop in share prices.
There are many other strong fundamentals that should prevent our property markets from crashing. Our market conditions are very different to previous property downturns.
Currently we have a robust economy, strong population growth, changing demographics, a huge deficiency of properties for both owners-occupiers and tenants and rising building costs. All of this points to a short downturn, with strong fundamentals underpinning the next stage of the property cycle.
In previous property market downturns we had an economy in recession, while today our economy is strong and buoyant.
In previous property market downturns immigration fell, as people didn't want to come to a country with an ailing economy. This time 'round Australia is experiencing a population boom, with the current rate of population growth the highest in almost 20 years.
Recently released Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal that the Australian population increased by 331,872 new residents or 1.6% over the 2007 calendar year. Our rate of population growth has not been this high since 1989. In general, highly skilled cashed up business migrants who are keen to buy houses are coming here. Many of these migrants are from Generation X or Y and are balancing our aging natural population. This is a good thing and something the ailing property markets in the USA and Britain would be desperately jealous of.
At the same time our changing demographics, with an increase in single and two people households, means that we need more dwellings for the same number of people.
In previous property market downturns we experienced an oversupply of properties. Over- enthusiastic builders constructed too many apartments and excited property investors put too many new properties onto the letting market. This increased supply of stock in the presence of decreasing demand meant that both property prices and rentals had to fall.
This time round we have a deficiency of stock in the presence of strong demand.
If we combine the low number of new constructions with the shortage of available property supply, accentuated by higher building costs and banks tightening finance for new development, we have a volatile mixture that can only lead to a much higher cost for the next round of new dwellings to be built.
What about all the news of rising interest rates and mortgage stress?
In previous property slumps we had low employment. Rising unemployment with no wages coming into the household meant families were forced to sell their homes. Today we have full employment, which means that even though there are higher loan repayments stretching family budgets, with household incomes rising it's not likely that owners will walk away from their homes.
Another factor suggesting this property downturn will be short lived is the strongly rising rentals that property investors are receiving all around the country. Rental increases usually lead to rising property values as investors come back into the market chasing more robust yields.
Putting all this together, it is unlikely that a property crash is on the cards.
On the contrary, our property markets are behaving normally; working their way through the individual property cycles. Within each state the property markets are fragmented with some suburbs, in particular the more affluent inner city and bayside suburbs, still performing strongly, while other suburbs will languish.
Understanding these cycles means that there are great opportunities out there for property investors who are selective and have the ability to think long term.
Article 4 - NSW URGED TO SCRAP MORTGAGE STAMP DUTY
Leading property experts are calling for the NSW government to follow Queensland's lead and bring forward the abolition of mortgage stamp duty to help stimulate activity in the property market.
The Queensland government recently announced that it was bringing forward the abolition of mortgage duty from 1 January 2009 to 1 July 2008; accordingly, in less than four weeks, NSW and South Australia will be the only jurisdictions in the country that still impose this form of duty.
Unlike SA and all other jurisdictions that have abolished mortgage duty over time, NSW continues to levy the duty at the full rate of $4 per $1,000, or $400 per $100,000 borrowed.
Peter Faludi, senior counsel at law firm DLA Phillips Fox, urged the state government to bring forward its plan to abolish mortgage duty in 2009.
"Given the additional costs to borrowers in raising debt finance in the current markets, it's difficult to understand why NSW continues to impose this form of duty," Faludi said.
"Although there are some minor concessions, the acute housing shortage and the lack of property development should indicate that any tax breaks that can be provided to the property industry should be seriously considered."
The NSW government delivered its State Budget last week; however, there was no move to bring forward the abolition of mortgage duty, or reduce the rate, from the current proposed abolition date of 1 July 2009.
Article 5 - DISPLAY HOMES: A MODEL INVESTMENT?
Next time you look around a display home, stop and think: you may be standing in the middle of your best investment yet.
Display homes offer a range of extremely tempting advantages, from guaranteed rent for a set period, to high yields of around 7% pa, as well as reliable tenants with a vested interest in keeping your property ship shape.
“Display homes represent an excellent opportunity for investors and are highly regarded as a prized addition to any investment portfolio,” says Ted Anderson, sales manager, Burbank, a leading builder and developer.
How it works
For an investor who’s only ever bought property via more conventional means, the method of purchasing a display home may seem a little odd. Typically what happens is that a developer buys some land in a high-profile area and puts together a display village, marketing all the properties on the site directly to buyers.
Builders will usually look for a display home site “where the action is, in a quality development with access to a large number of blocks of land,” explains Dennis Carter, manager, international sales, Metricon, a leading home builder. “At some stage during the building process, or when it’s just finished, we’ll sell it and then lease it back from the owner (lease-back option).”
Lease-back option is when you purchase the house and rent it to the builder for anywhere between 12 months to five years. The builder uses the house as a display home and in return pays you as the owner a fixed rent. The rent varies but is generally higher than what you would earn renting the property to a tenant on the normal rental market.
“Because it’s such a large investment, Metricon endeavours to maintain it as a display home for a minimum period of 18–24 months,” adds Carter. “Some homebuilders will also write extension options into the lease-back agreement to enable them to extend. This may be for another 12–18 months.” Once the estate has been fully developed, the display home is no longer required, and the developers will be ready to move on to their next project.
Until then, one of the major incentives for investors is the promise of a high quality tenant who will treat the property with the utmost respect, because it’s in their own best interests to do so. “It’s guaranteed that you’ll always have a very good tenant in there,” says Carter.
Top quality
Anderson agrees that, for an investor, having a major builder as a tenant is ideal. “The property will be maintained in pristine condition throughout the tenancy, and when the home is handed over it will be in ‘as new’ condition,” he says. “Extensive landscaping and external features such as alfresco areas, timber decking, BBQ areas and paving are included and will save the investor thousands of dollars.”
The quality of the finish is a major drawcard and, by their very nature, they’re there to attract buyers to a new development – after all, display homes tend to be of the highest quality.
“They always occupy a prime location within the developing estate, and are surrounded by homes of similar quality,” says Anderson. “Display homes are constructed to the highest standards and all inclusions and fittings reflect the quality that’s expected of such a home, and in most cases will include a number of upgrades that all add to the appeal of the home.” Angus Raine, CEO, Raine & Horne agrees that display homes have a lot to offer. “Top of the range display homes will have the very best fittings and inclusions such as floor coverings, appliances and light fittings,” he says. “They’re also usually professionally landscaped and interior designed with the best colour schemes so they look as good as possible.
“The best homes are often found in the best locations in a development. Mid-range display homes won’t have as many inclusions while those at the value end will have standard inclusions that come with any new home.”
Some developers will also include rates and insurance for the term of the lease – and there won’t be an agent grappling for their 8%. “The fact that we take care of all maintenance, rates and insurances and there are no agents fees charged, together with the higher rate of depreciation that a new home brings, all make display homes very attractive,” says Carter.
High yields
And of course the other major incentive is the guaranteed high rental yield. “A return of 7% pa for a residential investment is excellent,” says Anderson. “Most residential property will show a much lower return, plus in this case, there’s no maintenance issue for the investor. The rental is guaranteed for the lease period, and in many instances the lease may be extended subject to the life of the display village. After hand over, the investor will have an imposing home suitable for re-leasing or, as many investors do, moving into.”
However, due to the relative scarcity of display homes, they can be hard to get hold of. “They’re usually keenly sought after,” confirms Carter, adding that market forces will also play a part in availability issues. He advises keen investors to register their interest with a reputable builder.
Anderson says that, as the supply of display homes is sometimes so limited, “often investors will pay a holding deposit to secure first selection in the next release of display homes”.
Do the numbers stack up?
It depends, according to author and educator Helen Collier-Kogtevs. As an owner of two display homes, both in Sydney, she says her experience with investing in display homes has been very successful.
Collier-Kogtevs bought the two display homes when the property market was booming and it was difficult to find cash flow opportunities in capital cities. “The idea of purchasing a property with a fixed rental return of 7.5% for three years when the five-year fixed interest rate at the time was 5.99% was very attractive,” she says.
“The added bonus was that the builder also paid all the outgoings. Recently, one of the lease-back options came to an end and the display home went onto the open rental market. It didn’t take long to find a tenant – especially now that we’re experiencing a rental boom – paying $450 per week. The return isn’t as good as the lease-back arrangement, however it’s much better than had we not had the lease-back option in the first place.”
Collier-Kogtevs says it would have been difficult to achieve a weekly rent of $300 just over three years ago. The second display home has a five-year lease-back option with all outgoings paid by the builder, so it’s still ticking over quite nicely. “We purchased the second display home from the same builder due to the success of the first display home,” she says.
But are all display homes that good a deal?